Gold Wang Hanfeng: trade war or lead to a lose-lose but its impact should not be exaggerated

  : Sino-US trade friction heating: possible impacts and response Source: micro-channel public number CICC Research US President Trump signed a memorandum instructed to take measures to limit Chinese investment, and 500 per year for China?60 billion of tariffs on imported goods。 Comment below us: a trade war could lead to a lose-lose situation, but it should not exaggerate its impact。
We continue to focus on the possibility and impact of Sino-US trade war (see 2017 "Sino-US trade war and the possibility of influence" year after year after Trump elected president, "Sino-US trade friction cloud: possible areas of possible effect "in early March this year," Sino-US trade relations analysis ")。
Trump since the beginning of the campaign to promote the United States to participate in the strategic priority that the United States compromised over the last global trade rules。 This year is the US mid-term election year, the domestic political situation is complex, Trump to honor campaign promises, frequent trade protection policy。
We believe that the introduction of a trade war may be forced to make the US and global economies, including China, "lose-lose" the possibility of rising。
But its impact should not be exaggerated, because: 1) Trump introduced more trade war in response to the mid-selected political level to consider, if the cause too much negative impact on US growth and price, would mean set himself on fire; 2) complementarity of trade relations between China and the US is greater than the competition, and China currently own body mass internal market is growing, dependent on external demand relative decline; 3) Chinese exports to the US in 2017 for about $ 43 million to China the US imports about $ 160 billion, accounting for 19% and 8% of China's total exports and imports respectively, China is second only to the EU's trading partners。 In the context of intensified Sino-US trade friction, China is expected to take the initiative to adjust trade structure and further increase the pace of opening to the world and actively respond to the negative impact of Sino-US trade war brought。
  Trade war will mainly affect those areas?  In terms of specific areas involved: 1) From the signing of the memorandum is the first to look for the Chinese plan to levy additional duty of 25% of the industry, especially aerospace, information and communications technology, machinery; 2) a higher proportion of industry trade will affected。
Sino-US trade from the current industry structure point of view, China's exports to the United States mainly mechanical equipment and instruments (according to the classification mainly home appliances, electronics and other categories, accounting for 48% of total exports) and miscellaneous manufactured articles (12%), textiles (10%), metal products (7%), etc.。 US exports to China's products are mainly concentrated in machinery and equipment Instruments (30%, mainly capital goods), transport equipment (20%), chemical products (10%), plastics and products (5%); 3) the positive the point of view, the future of China may increase in response to the Sino-US trade war is open to a number of areas, including automotive, medical, financial, pension, and other media products。   Level, based on FACTSET statistics, in 2016 revenue from the United States accounting for A shares / non-financial sector income ratio in% /% respectively, while the share of the US S & P 500 companies from China is 5%。 Revenue from the United States accounted for a relatively high income of Chinese listed companies in the industry including technology hardware (technology hardware, semiconductors, etc.), consumer discretionary (consumer durables and clothing, personal items, etc.), medical supplies (equipment and supplies) and other revenue from China S & P 500 constituent stocks accounted for a relatively high proportion of income industries including technology (hardware and software), retail, energy and etc.。   The impact of: actively respond to possible short-term impact, need not be too pessimistic about the long-term Sino-US trade frictions affect investor level for judging from net exports growth, especially in the recent divergence of growth point to a certain extent, short-term market sentiment and risk appetite may bring some influence。 Specific long-term impact but also depending on the breadth and depth of the subsequent trade war to judge, but considering the toughness of the current Chinese domestic demand and more ample room for buffering policy, we believe that China's economic growth prospects and capital market performance need not be too pessimistic, Should the short-term market appears continuous and significant reduction of over-adjustment but provide a good opportunity for investors to enter the。